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    Da Vinci Analytic Group
    Operational analysis and forecasts of the world political processes. Risks evaluation and country's risks intelligence. Evaluation of current state policy on business and investments.

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    Da Vinci Analytic Group
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    Da Vinci Analytic Group
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    Da Vinci Analytic Group
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Breaking Report




High probability of coup in Moldova

13.01.2016

Moldova faces high probability of a coup initiated by pro-Russian forces, under the coordination of special services of the Russian Federation.

“Destabilization in Moldova could escalate into another regional hotbed of tension, which would also include part of Ukraine’s Odessa region. The attempts are also possible to destabilize the situation in Romania on ethnic grounds. “The scenario of force in Moldova could actualize the issue of expediency of the Russian military contingent on the territory of Transnistria and strengthen their presence.

The report stresses that a new expert of the Russian Institute of Strategic Studies George Menyailo arrived in Tiraspol on December 2015 “to revitalize the Dniester and Prut Center of the RISS." It should be noted that the RISS, under the leadership of Lieutenant-General of the Russian SVR Foreign Intelligence Service Leonid Reshetnikov was among the developers of the concept of Crimea’s annexation and occupation of Donbas. Previously, the Moldovan authorities deported two other employees of the RISS, which is evident of the fact that Moldovan security forces obtained evidence of the organization’s subversive activities. Read more...






Ukrainian Economic Trends Forecasts

Articles and Publications



07.01.2016 Russia’s security strategy means more problems for its neighbors

On the New Year’s eve, December 31, Vladimir Putin signed the National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation, which is the basic document of strategic planning, defining Russia’s national interests and strategic priorities. Judging by the text of the document, it is too early to relax for the Ukrainians.




17.11.2015 Russia tries to use Iranian geopolitical ambitions to undermine U.S. in the Gulf region

There are strong evidences of political and military cooperation and actions coordination between Iran and Russia in Syria that show probability of enhancing Tehran’s position in the region and using it by Moscow to undermine the Saudi Arabia leadership as far as stability in the Gulf.


 








15.11.2015 Russia is increasing its influence on Central Asia states

Russia uses risks of ISIS expanding in Afghanistan to increase its influence on CIS Central Asia states, their armed forces and to expand CDTO membership. Moscow could try to develop NATO analogue of collective defense in the region on the base of Collective Defense Treaty Organization as the core of pro-Russian regional integration model.




26.03.2015 Scenariile Rusiei pentru Transnistria / Revista22 (Romania)

Criza economică și cea de politică externă ge­nerate de acțiunile Moscovei în Ucraina au ac­ce­lerat procesul soluționării situației din Trans­nistria. Moscova a redus semnificativ vo­lumul finanțării. Injecțiile financiare din Ab­hazia și Osetia de Sud au fost și ele ajustate, dar impactul lor a fost mai puțin resimțit. În Transnistria, fondul de plăți și asistența socială se bazează pe bani rusești, în măsura în care toate beneficiile au fost conservate din vremea URSS.




30.01.2015 Russia’s Military Buildup in the Murmansk Oblast

The decision to reactivate Russia’s military unit deployment in Alakurtti was made at the end of 2013. In mid-February 2014, Colonel General Anatoly Sidorov, Commander of the Western Military District troops, announced that one of the military bases would be rebuilt by September the same year. However, he did not specify what bases.


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